Stonewall Democrats released a rather strong statement this afternoon, concluding that promises in the attempt to garner votes aren’t what matter.  Executive Director Michael Mitchell said in the statement, “A better indicator of what Mr. Ford’s future work for the LGBT community might look like is what he’s already done: nothing.”

The full statement:

Stonewall Democrats doubtful about change of heart from Harold Ford, Jr.

“New promises from Harold Ford, Jr. do not cancel past votes. Then Congressman Ford demonstrated with repeated votes for the Federal Marriage Amendment his stark opposition to marriage equality and his total lack of concern for protecting LGBT people and their families. While National Stonewall Democrats is, frankly, heartened by Mr. Ford’s recent about-face on same-sex marriage because it demonstrates how far public opinion on marriage equality has changed, we are not certain that it reflects anything about his own views besides a desire to be more appealing to Democratic primary voters in New York,” said Michael Mitchell, Executive Director of Stonewall Democrats.

“Our community has been taught the harsh lesson that promises and election year pandering from a politician are not indicative of that person’s actions in Congress. A better indicator of what Mr. Ford’s future work for the LGBT community might look like is what he’s already done: nothing.”

[UPDATE: Thanks to Matt Yglesias for posting the news.]

Watch the debate live here, follow me on Twitter or await updates here.

N.Y. Sen. Eric Adams, speaking in support of marriage equality.

Sen. Schneiderman: “You can’t legislate morality, but you can legislate justice.”

Following Sen. Ruben Diaz, Sr.’s speech opposing marriage equality in which he listed all of the states with anti-marriage equality amendments, Sen. Eric Adams began listing states as well. He finished, and said that those were the states in which slaves were permitted to be bought and sold. Adams said that popular opinion, Diaz’s argument, was not the right answer: “We have to lead the country in the right place.”

Adams went on to talk about the opposition to marriage equality, and the language of that opposition.  He concluded: “The same statements being made about Sen. Tom Duane . . . are the same comments that my grandmother received.”

2:45 p.m.: The vote is happening live here.

A full list of New York senators can be found here.  Adam Bink’s informed liveblog of today’s debate can be found here at Open Left.

[UPDATE:  All Republicans and eight Democrats voted no.

The vote:

FULL ROLL CALL

• Eric Adams (D) — YES
• Joseph Addabbo (D) — NO
• James Alesi (R) — NO
• Darrel Aubertine (D) — NO
• John Bonacic (R) — NO
• Neil Breslin (D) — YES
• John DeFrancisco (R) — NO
• Ruben Diaz (D) — NO
• Martin Malave Dilan (D) — YES
• Tom Duane (D) — YES
• Pedro Espada (D) — YES
• Hugh Farley (R) — NO
• John Flanagan (R) — NO
• Brian Foley (D) — YES
• Charles Fuschillo, Jr.  (R) — NO
• Martin Golden (R) — NO
• Joseph Griffo (R) — NO
• Kemp Hannon (R) — NO
• Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D) — YES
• Shirley Huntley (D) — NO
• Craig Johnson (D) — YES
• Owen Johnson (R) — NO
• Jeffrey Klein (D) — YES
• Liz Krueger (D) — YES
• Carl Kruger (D) — NO
• Andrew Lanza (R) — NO
• Bill Larkin (R) — NO
• Kenneth LaValle (R) — NO
• Vincent Leibell (R) — NO
• Tom Libous (R) — NO
• Elizabeth Little (R) — NO
• Carl Marcellino (R) — NO
• George Maziarz (R) — NO
• Roy McDonald (R) — NO
• Hiram Monserrate (D) — NO
• Velmanette Montgomery (D) — YES
• Thomas Morahan (R) — NO
• Michael Nozzolio (R) — NO
• George Onorato (D) — NO
• Suzi Oppenheimer (D) — YES
• Frank Padavan (R) — NO
• Kevin Parker (D) — YES
• Bill Perkins (D) — YES
• Michael Ranzenhofer (R) — NO
• Joseph Robach (R) — NO
• Stephen Saland (R) — NO
• John Sampson (D) — YES
• Diane Savino (D) — YES
• Eric Schneiderman (D) — YES
• Jose Serrano (D) — YES
• James Seward (R) — NO
• Dean Skelos (R) — NO
• Malcolm Smith (D) — YES
• Daniel Squadron (D) — YES
• William Stachowski (D) — NO
• Toby Ann Stavisky (D) — YES
• Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D) — YES
• Antoine Thompson (D) — YES
• David Valesky (D) — YES
• Dale Volker (R) — NO
• George Winner (R) — NO
• Catherine Young (R) — NO

Thanks to all who worked for today's vote.  I am so sorry that there was not success today.  But, as Sen. Tom Duane said: " I also believe in redemption and rehabilitation; ultimately we will be successful."]

Equality is moving.

Vigilance is still needed, but equality is taking steps forward.

1. Maine: Question 1 — Residents are being asked to vote No to preserve the marriage bill passed by the legislature and signed and supported by the governor earlier this year.  Activists have been raising money aplenty on both sides, but Mainers are an independent bunch.  The polls have tightened significantly, and the direction of the polling continues to show the effectiveness of “recruiting the kids” campaigning that many of us thought went out with Anita Bryant.  A victory here would both be a very real victory for the people of Maine, but also a signal to supporters of marriage equality that the tales told be our opponents are losing steam and that we can win this struggle.  A loss will, as usual, lead to second-guessing and re-calibrating for the next time.
2. New Jersey: Governor — Chris Christie sounds like someone who has few friends.  He just seems like a bit of a jerk.  Jon Corzine is a slick, political guy who, fortunately for me, takes positions on issues — including marriage equality — that gel with mine.  This is the race that will be blown up to mean Everything for 2010.  It doesn’t, but it will be spun that way by the winner, so I’ll be watching this very close race to see who gets to have that message.
3. New York: The 23rd Congressional District Special Election — Wow.  The local Republican Party’s nominee to replace President Obama’s Army Secretary John McHugh, a Republican, endorsed the Democrat in the race on Sunday after suspending her race on Saturday because the far Right had backed her Conservative Party opponent.  This race puts soap operas to shame. It seems likely that Doug Hoffman, the Conservative, will defeat Bill Owens, the Democrat, but Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens could make this race a tighter one than we think. Regardless of the victor, this is a race to keep in mind as teabaggers and others talk about the ascendancy of the far Right. The long-term implications, though, of Hoffman’s win could be an even further narrowing of the GOP’s messaging, which isn’t going to win races across the country.
4. Virginia: Governor — As Creigh Deeds (D) heads to what seems to be an all but inevitable defeat in Virginia, the question will be: Why?  How, after trending more blue in recent elections, did Bob McDonnell (R) slide to an easy victory?  Many people already have started to give their more-informed-than-mine opinion on that question, but the real question for tomorrow will be what effect Deeds’ flagging campaign will have on the rest of the ticket.
5. Virginia: Attorney General — Particularly Democrat Steve Shannon’s campaign against Kenneth Cuccinelli (R) to serve as the Attorney General of Virginia.  Cuccinelli is a scary man.  And I’m not alone in having — or expressing — that opinion.  The Washington Post called him “worrying” in its endorsement of Shannon and expressed concern over his “sometimes bizarre and incendiary ideas.”  If Cuccinelli finds his way to the A.G.’s Office, many will look to Deeds and wonder whether Terry McAuliffe would have been any better — at least at stopping the bleeding.
6. Washington: Referendum 71 — The referendum asks voters to Approve the measure to keep the domestic partnerships approved by the legislature.  It is likely to succeed, and domestic partnerships will be in Washington state to stay, but we’ve been surprised before so the troops out there are going to keep going ’til the very end.  Recall that Washington is a vote-by-mail-only state, and ballots just need to be postmarked by Election Day, so it’s possible that the result could be a while coming.
7. Georgia: Atlanta Mayor — Mary Norwood, currently a member of Atlanta’s City Council, could become the city’s first white mayor since 1973.  City Council President Lisa Borders and former state lawmaker Kasim Reed, who already were trailing Norwood, have picked up little support from undecided voters in the past month.  A candidate, though, needs to receive a majority of the vote to avoid a December run-off, which Norwood might not reach on Tuesday.  The recent entry of the state Democratic party into the race in support of Borders and Reed because of questions about Norwood’s political affiliations has sparked a flurry of last-minute interest and should make hitting the 50+1 mark difficult for Norwood on Tuesday.
8. Michigan: Kalamazoo Ordinance 1856 — Residents are being asked to vote Yes to keep Kalamazoo’s twice approved ordinance for housing, employment, and public accommodation protections for LGBT residents.  This is the third of three LGBT issues on the ballot across the country this fall, so equality advocates are keeping an eye on this race as well.
9. New York: New York City Mayor — As Nate Silver has noted, Mayor Michael Bloomberg almost certainly will win re-election.  But, in an odd year and being New York City, where the winner is a de facto national figure, it’s worth seeing if Bill Thompson, Bloomberg’s Democratic challenger, upsets him.
10. Ohio: Issue 2 — Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland endorsed this constitutional amendment put on the ballot by the General Assembly, but many of the measure’s biggest opponents are the liberal base of the Democratic Party.  Issue 2 places in the Ohio Constitution, an Ohio Livestock Care Standards Board, whose sole purpose is to supersede and prevent a planned attempt to bring a statutory issue to voters in 2010 similar to the humane cages measure approved by California voters in 2008.  I have written in support of a No vote on this issue previously and, though likely to pass, I’d like to see the issue gain less support than the Governor and agri-business supporting the measure are expecting.  (Ohio’s Issue 3 — relating to casinos — likely will be closer and is more controversial within the state, but I find the issue less interesting than everyone else does, so I’ll leave it to others to comment on that.)

What races are you watching?

If you’ve not yet watched openly gay, HIV-positive Senator Tom Duane’s gritty, moving 3 a.m. speech about legislation that he was sponsoring regarding cost-savings measures for people living with HIV/AIDS, you should.  Now.

It’s about a whole lot more than legislation.

The bill, which “provides that persons living with clinical/symptomatic HIV or AIDS, and . . . receiving shelter assistance or an emergency shelter allowance, shall not be required to pay more than 30% of the household’s . . . income towards shelter costs, including rent and utilities,” later passed the Senate on a vote of 52-1.

[H/T to Andy Towle.]

The last time I saw this was in middle-school student government:

Exactly who was in control of the Senate — or whether any of the procedural action the Republicans had taken was legally valid — was unclear. Democrats were successful in blocking Republicans from taking control of the Senate gavel, which remained firmly in the hands of Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins of Westchester County, who was guarded by sergeants-at-arms on both sides.

Thank you, New York Senate, for making us laugh.

Duane, openly gay, has been the leading marriage equality proponent in the Senate.  As people realized that Sen. Espada, a co-sponsor of the marriage equality bill, was being given a leadership position in the “power-sharing” arrancement under the new leadership, party labels appeared to diminish in importance and people went back to, “Will a vote be called?”

Quickly thereafter, people also realized that Sen. Duane has been laying low since the coup.  As PolitickerNY reported Wednesday, people began speculating that Duane was considering voting for the Skelos-Espada leadership team in exchange for a vote on the marriage equality bill.

Also, the Gay City News reported:

When asked if he could dispel stories that the GOP had reached out to him, [Duane] responded, “I have spoken to people on both sides of the aisle about seeing every issue accomplished that I have spent my whole life working to accomplish.”

So, another day, another question, another possibility for marriage equality . . .

* * * * *

In related news, stats wunderkind Nate Silver looks at a question mentioned previously at Law Dork: how the wording of marriage questions can dramatically alter the results.