In polling that has beat out the release of fund-raising numbers from the second quarter in the closely watched Ohio Senate race to replace Sen. George Voinovich, the big thing that’s clear is that nothing is clear — which is not good for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who fancies himself the front-runner in the race.
New numbers out today from Quinnipiac show that Fisher has a slight lead over fellow Democrat Jennifer Brunner, who is Secretary of State. He leads, within the margin of error, at 24-21 with 51 percent undecided and a +/- 4.5% margin of error. “Within the margin of error” is not what Fisher wants to see today. Also, the “a majority of Democrats are undecided” in a race with two already-elected statewide officials shows that the race is not only close but truly “anyone’s race to win.”
Finally, the general election is about as close, with Fisher defeating the favored Republican former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman 37-33 and Brunner defeating Portman 35-34, both within the margin of error of +/- 2.8%. The differences in numbers there aren’t anywhere near different enough for either candidate to be claiming the electability mantle just yet.
In other words, the Democratic primary, slightly less than 10 months away from today, is a jump-ball.
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Chris Geidner is the award-winning senior political editor at D.C.'s Metro Weekly and has written for The Atlantic Online, The American Prospect, Advocate.com, Salon and other publications, as well as at his blog, Law Dork. In 2011, he received the Excellence in News Writing Award from the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association for his coverage of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal. Prior to moving to D.C. in 2009, he served as an attorney on the senior staff at the Ohio Attorney General's Office and had earlier worked for a leading Columbus law firm. An extended biography can be found
I notice how you forgot to mention the lead part of the Quinnipiac data. Not too surprising you would leave out Obama’s approval rating in Ohio has dropped to below 50%.
I understand your focus being on the Senate race, but the poll, to which you linked, is not “all about the Senate Democratic primary.” While roughly 2/3rds of the article is about the senate race the other 1/3rd is about how Ohioans feel about the State of Ohio and Obama.
I’m merely commenting on your lack of mentioning the other data, which is quite relevant to the approaching Dem Primary & the 2010 Senate race. Your comment however does address them, I just think you would have put that information in the primary blog post.
Um, perhaps because this poll is all about the Senate Democratic primary.
But, yes, in the middle of a Republican-led Senate budget impasse that gets only surface-level treatment about the governor’s proposed cuts from the state’s newspapers, in a poll that didn’t ask about Strickland’s favorability or the Republican-led Senate, in an era of high unemployment, it’s not all that surprising to see Obama take a bit of a hit.
But, there are three-and-a-half years until he faces re-election. The Dem primary is in less than 10 months.
Hence, my focus.